Predicting the severity of COVID-19

Abstract

For more than two years the whole world has been ensnared by the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-COV-2. Every day in Belarus, more and more new cases of the disease are detected, the number of deaths continues to grow. Currently, according to Johns Hopkins University in our country, there are more than 930 thousand confirmed cases of coronavirus infection and more than 6 thousand deaths [1]. Therefore, the introduction of a new diagnostic tool can help not only reduce the lethality of this disease, but also help optimize the use of hospital beds, which will provide the possibility of using timely targeted therapy. As a result of the study, the high specificity (80.4%) of the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score calculator was confirmed, and high significant differences (p=0.004) were obtained, which allows us to recommend it as a starting point when developing more sensitive forecasting methods.