Measuring and Forecasting Fan Interest in NFL Football Games

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between NFL game characteristics and the frequency of fan ratings on the NFL’s website (www.NFL.com). The margin of victory and overall total points scored in a game are shown to be significant determinants of the number of times individual games are rated; suggesting fans enjoy close and high-scoring games. While the actual game characteristics are only known for certain after the game is played, information provided by betting markets show similar predictive power in estimating the number of times a game is rated. Given that betting market data is generated prior to the start of the game, these relationships may allow for improvements in pre-game forecasting of television, or other media, audiences for live sporting events.