Injuries from Falling Meteorites

Abstract

In the first section of this paper, historical evidence concerning injuries occasioned by falling meteorites, including the recent Aba, Japan, incident described by I. Yamamoto and S. Murayama in the preceding notes is presented. In the second section, the possibility of injury from meteoritic falls is critically examined from the viewpoint of the theory of probability. It is found that the probability of a hit on the Human Target-Area (HTA) of Europe (or of America) during any century between 1600 a.d. and 2200 a.d. is very small. There are, however, about 316 chances out of 1000 that at least one meteorite will strike in the world's HTA during the 20th century. Furthermore, there is very nearly a 50–50 chance for at least one meteorite to hit in the same HTA during the 3 centuries from 1700 to 2000 a.d. Finally, the odds are 99 to 1 that in at least one of the centuries between 2100 and 3300 a.d. at least one meteorite will hit in the world's HTA.