Carbon emission prediction study in Hebei Province based on system dynamics

Yunpeng Ling, Jing Nie, Nan Xu, Hongshan Zhang, Yongli Wang, Yiwen Li, Chengcong Cai
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Based on the system dynamics theory, this paper constructs the causal relationship diagram of population subsystem, economic subsystem, energy subsystem and environmental subsystem in the carbon emission system of Hebei Province, establishes a dynamic model of carbon emission system in Hebei Province, and uses the model to predict and analyse the carbon dioxide emissions in Hebei Province from 2020 to 2030. By promoting or inhibiting carbon emissions in Hebei Province, different scenarios are set for the carbon emission system of Hebei Province, and the carbon emissions of Hebei Province are simulated and predicted based on different scenarios, combined with the above scenario prediction and analysis of the carbon system in Hebei Province and the economic and social status of Hebei Province, the optimal scenario is selected to provide reference for the future carbon emission reduction road of Hebei Province.
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基于系统动力学的河北省碳排放预测研究
基于系统动力学理论,构建了河北省碳排放系统中人口子系统、经济子系统、能源子系统和环境子系统的因果关系图,建立了河北省碳排放系统的动态模型,并利用该模型对2020 - 2030年河北省二氧化碳排放量进行了预测和分析。通过促进或抑制河北省碳排放,对河北省碳排放体系设定不同情景,并基于不同情景对河北省碳排放进行模拟预测,结合上述情景对河北省碳系统及河北省经济社会状况的预测分析,选取最优情景,为河北省未来碳减排之路提供参考。
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