A Numbers Game? Statistics in Public Law Cases: ALBA Annual Lecture, 5 July 2021

Abstract

1. We are living in an increasingly statistical world. Complex statistical modelling is now commonplace, and, as a consequence, assessing the validity and reliability of statistical evidence is becoming ever more difficult. In daily Coronavirus updates, we are shown facts and figures displaying both absolute numbers and also changes in the rate of vaccinations, infections, hospitalisations, and deaths. Should we wish them to do so, our phones or other electronic devices can monitor and provide us with statistics showing our daily steps, screen time, and even our sleep quality. Statistics are also increasingly visible and influential in the world of sport. In football it is now easy to track the distance that a player runs throughout a game, the top speed that they reach, and even how many goals they scored as compared to their “expected goals”, i.e. the number of goals that they ought to have scored given the quality of the chances that they had.