Increasing actionability of in-house corporate prediction markets

Abstract

Prediction markets have been used to generate various types of forecasts and predictions for nearly two decades. In-house corporate prediction markets are used for collecting and aggregating information dispersed throughout a company. Most of the existing academic research in the area of in-house prediction markets deals with the issue of accuracy. This paper focuses on a different topic: the actionability of in-house corporate prediction markets. The actionability of an in-house corporate prediction market refers to the usefulness of the prediction market in the decision-making process in the company. This paper identifies two improvement factors that have the potential of increasing the actionability of in-house corporate prediction market: allowing for finer grain questions and providing signals for informational needs over a period of time.