RECENT TREND OF CHANGE OF FERTILITY IN NEPAL

Hikmat Bahadur Raya
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Abstract

  Fertility is one of the most predominant demographic factors of population dynamics. This article tries to analyze the trend of fertility of Nepal comparing with Global trend and the trends of other SAARC countries. This paper follows the quantitative analysis. The entire scope of discussion in this study is based on secondary sources of data. The results show that both ASFR and TFR have been continuously decreasing since 1990s. The decreasing rate is seen more in between 1998-2005s. Now the TFR is 2.3, so Nepal is in nearer to the replacement level of fertility rate. The marriage in early age is not still reduced remarkably that's why the fertility rate of this age group is not decreased as comparison to other age groups in Nepal. In the beginning, the TFRs of all SAARC countries were more than that of world. But in between past sixty decades, the TFR of this region is remarkably reduced and now it is similar to the world's figure except the Pakistan's. The TFR of Pakistan is still high in comparison to its neighbors. Fertility decline in Nepal has been occurring for several decades to till now. The reduction of fertility is beneficial in many domains, as it opens up completely for new employment and educational prospects for young women. It also creates new manpower for job market which helps to boost the economic growth. But continuous declination of fertility rate below the replacement level is not a good scenario in demography because it causes the negative growth rate of population and increase the dependency ratio.Researcher: A Research Journal of Culture and SocietyVol. 3, No. 3, January 2018, Page: 72-80
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尼泊尔生育率变化的最新趋势
生育率是人口动态中最主要的人口因素之一。本文试图将尼泊尔的生育率趋势与全球趋势和其他南盟国家的趋势进行比较分析。本文进行了定量分析。本研究中讨论的整个范围是基于二手数据来源。结果表明,自20世纪90年代以来,ASFR和TFR均呈持续下降趋势。下降的速度在1998年至2005年期间更为明显。现在的总生育率是2.3,所以尼泊尔更接近生育率的更替水平。早婚仍然没有显著减少,这就是为什么这个年龄组的生育率与尼泊尔其他年龄组相比没有下降。一开始,南盟所有国家的总发病率都高于世界。但在过去的60年里,该地区的总生育率显著下降,现在它与世界上的数字相似,除了巴基斯坦。与邻国相比,巴基斯坦的总生育率仍然很高。到目前为止,尼泊尔的生育率已经下降了几十年。生育率的降低在许多领域都是有益的,因为它为年轻妇女开辟了新的就业和教育前景。这也为就业市场创造了新的劳动力,有助于促进经济增长。但是,生育率持续下降到更替水平以下,在人口统计学上并不是一个好的情况,因为它会导致人口负增长,增加抚养比。研究员:《文化与社会研究杂志》第1卷。3, 2018年1月第3期,第72-80页
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