Urbanization, the cornerstone of air traffic growth

Abstract

It is well known that economic growth is a key factor of air traffic growth, but another explanatory variables playing a major role in air traffic evolution are: population growth, urbanization and new middle-class emergence in developing countries. Another level of air traffic is the increasing connectivity between people and regions. At first, it can be viewed as a consequence of economic growth but it is also a facilitator: directly with the multiplication of new routes and the increasing capacity in airports which extend the supply for future journeys and indirectly by stimulating the economy through infrastructure investments and the business attract. While the world total population will increase from 7 to 8.3 billion people in 2030, the urbanization growth rate is expected to be 2% per year, representing 60% of the world population or 5 billion people in 2030. Migration is also an air traffic vector. With the globalization of the economy, more and more students feel that studying abroad is positive for their future careers. One million international students come from East Asia & Pacific area to study in North America and Western Europe, which is the number one hosting region with 2 million international. Finally, simplifications of visa policies, with visa on arrival programmes replacing the traditional visa, a form of deregulation, is also having a positive impact on air traffic growth.