{"title":"Progress in Economics","authors":"Bradford Tuckfield","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2830873","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper is an attempt to measure progress in economics research. In order to measure progress, we rely on an objective, standardized measure: economists’ accuracy forecasting macroeconomic indicators. We undertake a descriptive, exploratory study of trends over time in economic forecasting accuracy. Data comes from professionals’ forecasts of US unemployment and nominal GDP since 1968. The analysis here shows no evidence of improvement in forecasting accuracy. Several potential causes and implications of this finding are discussed.","PeriodicalId":308524,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Forecasting (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Forecasting (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2830873","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper is an attempt to measure progress in economics research. In order to measure progress, we rely on an objective, standardized measure: economists’ accuracy forecasting macroeconomic indicators. We undertake a descriptive, exploratory study of trends over time in economic forecasting accuracy. Data comes from professionals’ forecasts of US unemployment and nominal GDP since 1968. The analysis here shows no evidence of improvement in forecasting accuracy. Several potential causes and implications of this finding are discussed.
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