Effect Of Monetary Policy Regimes On Output Growth In West Africa

Oluwafemi Isaac Ajayi, Seth K. Akutson
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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy regimes on output growth in West Africa. This was undertaken given that countries in the region require output growth, but are pursuing different monetary policy regimes and are yet to witness adequate output growth. So this set the objective of the study. The study made use of a longitudinal research design that obtained cross-section data from the secondary sources of the Central Banks of the selected countries, the World Bank Development Indicator, the International Monetary Fund as well as the International Financial Statistics database for the period from 2000 to 2021. The data analysis method involved using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) using a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) regression was used for the estimation. The results obtained indicate that the monetary policy rate was only effective in the short run to exert a significant effect on output growth, while the money supply was significant in both the short run and long run. So, the study makes the following recommendations; money supply is an effective tool for achieving output growth and this should be effectively managed to curb inflationary trends that may arise as a result of increased money supply in order not to reverse economic growth. Monetary authorities should promote activities in all sectors of the economy, particularly in the high-growth sectors. There should be cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities in West Africa to ensure smooth coordination and consistency in monetary and fiscal pursuits.
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货币政策制度对西非产出增长的影响
本文考察了货币政策制度对西非产出增长的影响。之所以这样做,是因为该区域各国需要产出增长,但正在实行不同的货币政策制度,而且尚未看到足够的产出增长。这就是研究的目的。该研究采用纵向研究设计,从选定国家的中央银行、世界银行发展指标、国际货币基金组织以及国际金融统计数据库的二手来源获得2000年至2021年期间的横截面数据。数据分析方法包括使用描述性和推断性统计。使用混合平均组(PMG)回归的面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)进行估计。结果表明,货币政策利率仅在短期内有效,对产出增长产生显著影响,而货币供应量在短期和长期均显著。因此,该研究提出了以下建议;货币供应是实现产出增长的有效工具,应有效控制这一点,以抑制由于货币供应增加而可能出现的通货膨胀趋势,以免经济增长出现逆转。货币当局应促进所有经济部门的活动,特别是高增长部门的活动。西非各国货币和财政当局应加强合作,确保货币和财政政策的顺利协调和一致。
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