North Korean Futures

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the diplomatic paradox of the DPRK following the global financial crisis and the co called “Arab Spring,” each of which had a unique impact on the behavior and policy decisions of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Paradoxically, while their aggressive position has mostly come from a desire to solve perceived security challenges, it has caused deeper economic woes and a further detraction from the lower Songbun categories: the marginalized and “untouchable” caste in North Korea. The results are growing destabilization, more widespread human suffering resembling the famine of the 1990s and an increased dependence on China. Peaceful conflict management with North Korea has been an ongoing discussion largely focused upon the development of nuclear weapons, the expansion of ballistic missile technology and recurring acts of hostility toward neighbors. However, the UN also describes the situation to include “persisting deterioration in human rights situation” and “systemic, widespread and grave violation of civil, political, economic and social and cultural rights.” Central planning failures have further led to widespread environmental problems rendering large amounts of land unproductive (in an already mountainous country) as well as many homeless and in poverty. The current state of affairs is simply unsustainable and creating greater regional conflict. This paper will attempt to consider how these macroscopic economic and political factors run alongside sociocultural ones, as was seen in the “Arab Spring”, which carry unintended consequences in how the DPRK tried to control the “carrots and sticks” as a security measure in the wake of the recent global financial crisis and continued growth of China. While the goal has been to foster more external security (historically very effective and fits inside a preexisting political paradigm) more internal instability exists than arguably ever before. An increased understanding of the values at work can lead toward different strategies for diplomacy and the normalization of relations in the current Northeast Asian conflict.