Determinants of Public Sector Bank's Profitability in India: An Empirical Study

Gurmeet Singh
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Abstract

The economic development of country depends on the effective banking system. In recent years, there have been considerable pressures on the profitability of banks. The study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between the return on assets (ROA) and nine variables over the period 2005 to 2014. Johansen’s co-integration test and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship. The analysis reveals that the returns on assets of the Indian public sector banks are positively co-integrated with all the nine variables under the study and hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. The results of VECM revels that secured advances to total advances, burden to total assets, burden to interest income, operating profits to total assets, non-interest income to total assets and profit per employee causes return on asset in long run and short run. While, non performing assets, deposits to total liabilities and net interest margins causes return on assets in short run only. The findings from Granger causality based on the VECM indicate bidirectional causality exists between all the variables tested and return on assets except non-performing assets. Non-performing assets granger causes return on assets but not the other way round.
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印度公共部门银行盈利能力的决定因素:实证研究
一个国家的经济发展依赖于有效的银行体系。近年来,银行的盈利能力面临相当大的压力。本研究考察了2005 - 2014年期间资产收益率(ROA)与9个变量之间的长期均衡关系。采用约翰森协整检验和矢量误差修正模型探讨了长期均衡关系。分析表明,印度公共部门银行的资产收益率与所研究的所有九个变量都是正协整的,因此它们之间存在长期均衡关系。VECM结果表明,担保垫款对总垫款的影响、负担对总资产的影响、负担对利息收入的影响、营业利润对总资产的影响、非利息收入对总资产的影响、人均利润对长期和短期资产回报率的影响。而不良资产、存款占总负债和净息差只会在短期内产生资产回报。基于VECM的格兰杰因果关系发现,除不良资产外,所有被测变量与资产收益率之间存在双向因果关系。不良资产是资产收益率的格兰杰,而不是资产收益率的格兰杰。
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