Trend Moment Implementation in Forecasting Vehicle Sales at PT. Thamrin Group Palembang

Abstract

PT. Thamrin Group Palembang is one of the dealers that sells two-wheeled motor vehicles with the Yamaha brand. Currently, consumer interest in Yamaha Motorcycles is increasing so that it is not uncommon for consumers to have a pivot system to get the Yamaha Motor they want, which is because the available Yamaha Motor unit stock does not meet the buyer's demand. This happened because PT. Thamrin Group Palembang has difficulty in determining the stock needs of Yamaha Motor units for the following years, which is also influenced by sales data that changes from time to time. Therefore, in this study, the trend moment method was applied to be able to determine forecasts or predictions for the future needs of Yamaha motorcycle units. The trend moment method requires sales data from 2 years back and then forecasting calculations are carried out using the formulas from the trend moment method. In addition, as a development of previous research related to the trend moment method, researchers built an information system that can be used to simplify and shorten the time in doing forecasting or prediction calculations. In this study, samples were taken of sales data for the Yamaha Mio M3 125 R from 2019 to 2020 to predict the need for the Yamaha Mio M3 125 R motorcycle unit in January 2021. It can be seen from the results obtained in the manual calculation of the trend moment forecasting that can be displayed on the web-based system that has been built in this research, which shows the prediction results of the needs of the Yamaha Mio M3 125 R motorcycle unit in January. 2021 as many as 26 units.