Investigating the Effects of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Climate Elements of Iran (1980-2020)

Abstract

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is one of the large-scale climate change patterns in the maritime tropics, with sub-seasonal time periods of 30 to 60 days affecting tropical and subtropical regions. This phenomenon can cause changes in various quantities of the atmosphere and ocean, such as pressure, sea surface temperature, and the rate of evaporation from the ocean surface in tropical regions. In this research, the effects of Madden-Julian fluctuation on the weather elements of Iran have been investigated with the aim of knowing the effects of different phases in order to improve the quality of forecasts and benefits in territorial planning. At first, the daily rainfall data of 1980-2020 were received from the National Meteorological Organization and quality controlled. Using the Wheeler and Hendon method, the two main components RMM1 and RMM2 were analyzed, based on which the amplitude of the above two components is considered as the main indicator of the intensity and weakness of this fluctuation. This index is based on the experimental orthogonal functions of the meteorological fields, including the average wind levels of 850 and 200 hectopascals and outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) between the latitudes of 20 degrees south and 20 degrees north. The clustering of the 7-day sequence with a component above 1 was used as the basis for clustering all eight phases, and by calculating the abnormality of each phase compared to its long term in the DJF time frame, the zoning of each phase was produced separately. In the end, phases 1, 2, 7, 8 were concluded as effective phases in Iran’s rainfall and phases 3, 4, 5, 6 as suppressive phases of Iran’s rainfall.