Deconstructing Lifecycle Expenditure

Mark Aguiar, Erik Hurst
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引用次数: 127

Abstract

In this paper we revisit two well-known facts regarding lifecycle expenditures. The first is the familiar "hump" shaped lifecycle profile of nondurable expenditures. We document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the lifecycle profile of individual sub-components. We find, for example, that while food expenditures decline after middle age, expenditures on entertainment continue to increase throughout the lifecycle. These patterns pose a challenge to familiar lifecycle models that emphasize inter-temporal substitution or movements in income, including standard models of precautionary savings, myopia, and limited commitment. Secondly, we document that the increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of expenditure over the lifecycle is not greater for luxuries. In particular, the dispersion in entertainment expenditure declines relative to food expenditures as households become older, casting further doubt on theories that emphasize (exclusively) shocks to permanent income. We propose and test a Beckerian model that emphasizes intra-temporal substitution between time and expenditures as the opportunity cost of time varies over the lifecycle. We find this alternative model successfully explains the joint behavior of food and entertainment expenditures in the latter half of the lifecycle. The model, however, is less successful in explaining expenditure patterns during the early half of the lifecycle.
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解构生命周期支出
在本文中,我们将重温关于生命周期支出的两个众所周知的事实。第一种是我们熟悉的“驼峰”形状的非持久性支出生命周期曲线。我们记录了总非耐用品的行为掩盖了单个子组件生命周期剖面的惊人异质性。例如,我们发现,虽然中年后的食品支出会下降,但在整个生命周期中,娱乐支出会持续增加。这些模式对我们熟悉的强调跨期替代或收入变动的生命周期模型构成了挑战,包括预防性储蓄、短视和有限承诺的标准模型。其次,我们证明,在整个生命周期中,奢侈品的横断面支出分散程度的增加并不大。特别是,随着家庭年龄的增长,娱乐支出的分散性相对于食品支出的分散性下降,这进一步质疑了强调(完全)永久收入冲击的理论。我们提出并测试了一个贝克模型,该模型强调时间和支出之间的时间内替代,因为时间的机会成本随生命周期的变化而变化。我们发现这个替代模型成功地解释了生命周期后半段食品和娱乐支出的共同行为。然而,该模型在解释生命周期前半段的支出模式方面不太成功。
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