The Analysis of the 2008 Global Crisis on the Exports of Turkey

Abstract

Global crisis affects the overall economy, but in some cases even no reduction in production levels occur, exports decline sharply. In this study we attempted to answer the question; if a global crisis had not taken place in 2008, what would be the value of exports in Turkey in 2009? Beside the subject analyzed, another main objective of this article was to present an alternative methodology for analyzing such topics and demonstrate its advantages. For this purpose, by using the annual time series exports data from 1981-2014, we employed Grafted Polynomial Functions and estimated the value of exports in 2009 in a predictive manner. We found that, a loss of approximately $ 54 billion occurred in Turkey's exports as the result of the 2008 global crisis. We also showed the strength of our model in extrapolation and in interpolation by establishing the relationship between B-Splines and our grafted polynomial function.