The Population Dynamic Challenge to Cuban Socialism

Abstract

1. the demographic transition in CubaThe theory of Demographic Transition explains those demographic changes that are the result of economic development. According to this theory, there are different stages to demographic transition, measured fundamentally - although in no way exclusively - by birth and morbidity rates.The Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (Centro Latino Americano de Demografia (CELADE) 1992) created a model adjusted to the population conditions of Latin America retaken by Chackiel (2004). The model took into account the population growth based on birth and morbidity rates, the age structure and the relation of dependency between those who are not working and the economically active population (EAP). In this study, Cuba was grouped with Argentina, Chile and Uruguay among those countries experiencing an advanced phase of increased demographic transition.Several years ago, Cuba experienced a population drop, caused by its demographic regime1 and emigration. The Annual Natural Growth Rate (ANGR) has fallen significantly. While in 1960, it was 25 per 1,000 which corresponded to a developing country with a considerable youth population and high birth rates, in 2006, the rate was less than 3 per 1,000, which is comparable to a developed country with an aged population. In less than two generations, demo- graphically speaking, Cuba has gone from an underdeveloped country with a young population to a developed country with an old population.Cuba has experienced an early and total demographic transition similar to that of developed countries. However, unlike the developed countries, Cuba has not arrived at that point as a result of industrialisation. The Cuban development model, oriented toward satisfying needs rather than the market, has undergone - in demographic terms - a similar transition to that of advanced capitalist countries, but via a different path. This in itself poses a challenge to development: Can a country sustain an increasingly aged population without a simultaneous advance in labour productivity that counterbalances the increasing weight of a part of the inactive population on the shoulders of the active workforce?2. the Population dynamic in CubaThe total population of Cuba in 1990 was a little more than 10 million inhabitants (10,662,148). Ten years later, in 2010, it barely passed 11 million (11,241,161), an increase of 5.4 per cent, which is considered a slow rate of growth. Since 2004, it has experienced a deep stagnation in the population with periods of absolute decline in the periods 2006-2008 and 2010. In 2009, the population grew by 652 compared to 2008, and 2011 reported an increase of 6,764. However, while the population appears to be in recovery, preliminary data from the Population and Housing Census (PHC) (2012) (ONE 2012) shows a drastic decrease of the population by 83,991 according to the calculation of the statistical system, the population was 11,132,934 in total.To analyse the performance of a population to the point of departure is always the rate of natural growth (ANGR). Figure 1 shows the behaviour of this rate.The first thing to notice is the tendency of the vertical bars, which show the evolution of the ANGR. In 1991, for the first time, the ANGR fell to 9.5 persons per 1,000 inhabitants. Note that, the recoveries of 2008, 2009 and 2011 (3.2, 3.8, 4.1 per thousand inhabitants) do not mean that the trend of growth is recovering, but that there is low growth with oscillatory movements.The solid line, the birth rate, is the main cause of the decreasing ANGR. What is the reason for such a precipitous drop in births? To explain this, it is necessary to introduce the concept of the Global Fecundity Rate (GFR),2 the average number of children per woman, which is typically above 2, and in some cases higher than 3. In 1959, for example, at the triumph of the Cuban Revolution, the average number of children per woman in Cuba was 3. …