Evaluating Forecasting Techniques for Integrating Household Energy Prosumers into Smart Grids

Abstract

This paper tackles the problem of integrating household energy prosumers in Smart Energy Grids by analyzing a set of state-of-the-art energy forecasting techniques that allow individual or aggregated prosumers to evaluate their future energy demand and inform the Distributed System Operator (DSO) about potential grid imbalances. Thus, the DSO can perform a proactive strategy to manage the grid and avoid problems before they appear. The key element of this approach is the prediction technique, that must be accurate enough such that the resulting grid imbalances can be compensated in real-time. The paper evaluates a set of state-of-the-art statistical and Machine Learning (ML) prediction techniques, such as SARIMA, feed-forward and recurrent neural networks, support vector regression or ensemble prediction models, on real household historical energy demand logs by performing a feature selection process for each ML algorithm as to identify the best elements that influence the energy demand of a house. A set of experiments are performed on the REFIT Electrical Load Measurements data set evaluating each model’s performance with respect to the selected features. Among the evaluated algorithms, the Ensemble Prediction Model gives best prediction accuracy, showing a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 14.4% followed by the SVM model with a MAPE of 15.4%.