Application of Kalman Filter to Large-Scale Geospatial Data: Modeling Population Dynamics

Abstract

To utilize a huge amount of observation data based on real-world events, a data assimilation process is needed to estimate the state of the system behind the observed data. The Kalman filter is a very commonly used technique in data assimilation, but it has a problem in terms of practical use from the viewpoint of processing efficiency and estimating the deterioration in precision when applied to particularly large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a method that simultaneously addresses these problems and demonstrate its usefulness. The proposed method improves the processing efficiency and suppresses the deterioration in estimation precision by introducing correction processes focusing on the non-negative nature and sparseness of data in wavelet space. We show that the proposed method can accurately estimate population dynamics (MAE ≤ 3, RMSE ≤ 7) on the basis of an evaluation done using population data generated from cellular networks. In addition, the possibility of wide area abnormality detection using the proposed method is shown from a situation analysis of when Category 5 typhoon Hagibis made landfall in Japan. The proposed method has been deployed in a commercial service to estimate real-time population dynamics in Japan.