Perceived Outcomes and Willingness to Retreat among Umbrella Movement Participants

Abstract

Conventionally, it is believed that people are more likely to participate in protests if positive outcomes are probable. However, the significance of instrumental rationality seems to be weak in various occupation movements around the world. Against this background, we ask: How did the Umbrella Movement participants perceive the likelihood of various outcomes? How did such perceptions influence their preferred movement strategies? An analysis of onsite protest survey data shows that the majority of participants were not optimistic about the chances of achieving their goals. However, perceived likelihood of getting different types of government concessions indeed affected willingness to retreat, though the influence depended on the configuration of perceived outcome likelihood. The article discusses the place of instrumental rationality in the Umbrella Movement and the conceptualization of perceived outcomes in studies of protests.