Model-based long-term electricity generation system planning under uncertainty

Ninghong Sun, I. Ellersdorfer, D. J. Swider
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引用次数: 26

Abstract

Within this paper a stochastic linear mixed-integer model for power plant investment planning under uncertainty is presented. Technical constraints relating to thermal power plants are implemented to better determine their operational flexibility. Modeled with a scenario recombining tree, uncertain wind power generation is explicitly considered in the unit commitment planning. In order to investigate the enhanced impact of heat supply on the electricity market due to increasing capacity of combined heat and power units, district heating systems are incorporated. Modeling results for the German electricity market are discussed regarding the significant influence of uncertainty on investment decisions.
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不确定条件下基于模型的长期发电系统规划
本文提出了不确定条件下电厂投资规划的随机线性混合整数模型。实施与火力发电厂有关的技术约束,以更好地确定其运行灵活性。采用场景重组树模型,在机组承诺规划中明确考虑了风力发电的不确定性。为了调查由于热电联产机组容量的增加而增加的供热对电力市场的影响,纳入了区域供热系统。针对不确定性对投资决策的显著影响,讨论了德国电力市场的建模结果。
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