Аналіз показників декаплінгу за ресурсними факторами в контексті формування сталого розвитку регіону

Serhii M. Litvak, Olha A. Litvak
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Abstract

The article studies the trends in shaping the sustainable development of the region based on the analysis of dynamics of decoupling by resource factors in identifying the relationships between economic development and consumption of certain types of resources in the Mykolaiv region. The concept of decoupling has been analyzed, and two types of decoupling are considered: by resource factors and by impact on the environment. In order to identify the effect of decoupling by resource factors in the Mykolaiv region, the dynamics of the following indicators has been studied: consumption of energy and oil refinery products; fresh water consumption; waste generation, recycling and combustion for energy production. The volume index of gross regional product is used as an indicator of economic growth. Volume indices of consumption of the resources under study and GRP are calculated with reference to the baseline in 2010. Absolute decoupling by consumption of energy and oil refinery products has been revealed. By the volume of fresh water consumption, no decoupling has been found. The highest decoupling indicator was observed in 2015, but in the recent years it is estimated to vary within the negative range. The last three years showed the tendency of reduction in the volumes of hazardous waste, but previous substantial variations do not allow confirming the decoupling effect in waste generation and management. The main factors that hamper the transition to a resource-saving production and consumption are identified. The measures to direct regional development with account for green growth are suggested. The Mykolaiv region has a considerable potential for the transition to a resource-saving and ecologically-oriented economy. The study of the dynamics of the presented decoupling indicators by resource factors can contribute to establishing targets and limitations in order to create the preconditions for sustainable development of the region.
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本文在分析资源要素解耦动力学的基础上,探讨了塑造该地区可持续发展的趋势,确定了尼古拉耶夫地区经济发展与某类资源消费之间的关系。分析了脱钩的概念,提出了两种类型的脱钩:资源因素的脱钩和环境影响的脱钩。为了确定资源因素对Mykolaiv地区脱钩的影响,研究了以下指标的动态:能源和炼油产品的消费;淡水消耗;废物产生、回收和燃烧用于能源生产。地区生产总值的数量指数被用作经济增长的指标。参考2010年基线计算研究资源消费量和生产总值的体积指数。能源消费与炼油产品消费的绝对脱钩已经显现。从淡水消耗量来看,没有发现解耦。去耦指标在2015年达到最高,但近年来估计在负值范围内变化。过去三年显示危险废物的数量有减少的趋势,但以前的大量变化不能证实废物产生和管理方面的脱钩效应。确定了妨碍向资源节约型生产和消费过渡的主要因素。提出了以绿色增长指导区域发展的措施。尼古拉耶夫地区在向资源节约和面向生态的经济过渡方面具有相当大的潜力。通过对资源因子解耦指标的动态研究,可以为区域可持续发展设定目标和限制条件。
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