The Ongoing Democratic Revolution in Bulgaria: Failure of a Change Model Under an External Scenario

Pepa Bouzova
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Abstract

: The paper analyses the dramatic vicissitudes of the political change in Bulgaria over the last three years. On July 9 2020 the President of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, with a raised fist and the slogan “Mutri (Mafia) out!” led a democratic revolution against the 10-year rule of Boyko Borissov. Mass protests began, which in the elections of April 4 th 2021 for the first time took away the majority of his party. We were faced up with an incredible paradox: the process of change started as a people’s protest against corrupt governance and led to three years of sleeping of the political system, powerlessness and even more corrupt governance by a populist group tied to oligarchs and a financial pyramid. The US ambassador coordinated all attempts to resolve the crisis. The Party of the Change came to power with a shady financial and political support, and made a successful quadruple coalition at the end of 2021. It deepened the crisis with a chaotic six-month rule. The conducted analysis is based on the application of the concept of disease to the explanation of political crisis in Bulgaria. It is expressed in the subor-dination of institutions and parties to the interests of financial oligarchs and in the failure to resolve the problems of the citizens. The paper argues that the model of political change in the interests of democracy and citizens based on an outside scenario is predestined to failure if there are no mature democratic institutions and the parties serve only the financial oligarchy. The analysis is carried out from the point of view of J. Buchanan’s project of constitutional political economy in order to make sense of the present-day political and social crisis in our country.
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保加利亚正在进行的民主革命:外部情景下变革模式的失败
本文分析了保加利亚在过去三年中政治变化的戏剧性变化。2020年7月9日,保加利亚总统鲁门·拉德夫高举拳头,高喊“穆特里(黑手党)出局!”领导了一场反对博伊科·鲍里索夫10年统治的民主革命。在2021年4月4日的选举中,大规模抗议活动开始了,这首次夺走了他所在政党的多数席位。我们面临着一个令人难以置信的悖论:变革的过程始于人民对腐败治理的抗议,并导致了政治制度的三年沉睡,无能为力,甚至是与寡头和金融金字塔联系在一起的民粹主义团体的腐败治理。美国大使协调了解决危机的所有努力。变革党在不正当的财政和政治支持下上台,并于2021年底成功组建了四党联合政府。它在混乱的六个月统治下加深了危机。所进行的分析是基于将疾病概念应用于解释保加利亚的政治危机。它表现在机构和政党从属于金融寡头的利益,以及未能解决公民的问题。本文认为,如果没有成熟的民主制度,政党只为金融寡头服务,那么基于外部情景的民主和公民利益的政治变革模式注定会失败。从布坎南宪政经济学的角度进行分析,以理解当前我国的政治和社会危机。
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