Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 High Infection Spread in India Based on SIRD Model and Structural Insights

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan, China, in 2019. With antigen drift of the RNA beta-coronavirus, a number of variants have appeared, especially, B.1.617 variant, which rapidly spread throughout India and caused a devastating global pandemic. However, the high infectious mechanism is still under discussion. In this paper, the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model was used for the analysis of B.1.617 variant in India to estimate its higher infectivity than the wild one. With that in mind, animal contact, social network, technology detection and government deals are raised as important drivers of transmission. Furthermore, the paper also revealed that particular special mutations in B.1.617 variant such as T478K, L452R in the S protein might affect viral fitness [1], making it highly infectious, based on the structural and binding affinity comparison to wild-type and B.1.617 variant with human ACE2.