The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and International Spillovers on Russian Financial Markets

B. Hayo, Ali M. Kutan
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引用次数: 12

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, there is some persistence in both bond and stock market returns. Second, we find that U.S. stock market returns Granger-cause Russian financial markets. Third, growth in oil prices has a positive effect on Russian stock market returns. Fourth, there is a significant economic and statistical influence of a specific type of news on the Russian bond market: Positive (negative) news related to the energy sector raise (lower) daily returns by one percentage point. News from the war in Chechnya, on the other hand, do not appear to have a significant influence on financial markets.
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新闻、油价和国际溢出效应对俄罗斯金融市场的影响
本文分析了新闻、石油价格和国际金融市场发展对俄罗斯债券和股票市场日收益的影响。首先,债市和股市的回报都有一定的持久性。第二,我们发现美国股票市场的收益与俄罗斯金融市场的收益存在granger因果关系。第三,油价上涨对俄罗斯股市回报有积极影响。第四,特定类型的新闻对俄罗斯债券市场具有重大的经济和统计影响:与能源部门相关的正面(负面)新闻使日回报率提高(降低)一个百分点。另一方面,来自车臣战争的消息似乎没有对金融市场产生重大影响。
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