Avrupa Parasal Birliği'nde Borç Krizi ve Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (The Debt Crisis and Financial Sustainability in the Monetary Policy of Europe: An Econometric Analysis)

Abstract

Turkish Abstract: Bu calismanin amaci Avrupa Parasal Birligi’ne uye ulkelerin mali surdurulebilirliklerinin incelenmesi ve mali surdurulebilirlige iliskin politika onerilerinin sunulmasidir. Bu baglamda Avrupa Parasal Birligi’ne uye olan ulkelerin faiz disi fazla ve kamu borcu verileri kullanilmistir. Avrupa Parasal Birligi’ne uye olan ulkelerin mali surdurulebilirligi, borc krizi yasayan ulkeler ve borc krizi yasamayan ulkeler ayrimi gozetilerek 1999-2015 donemine ait yillik verilerle panel veri analizi kullanilarak arastirilmistir. Arastirma sonuclarina gore borc krizi yasamayan ulkeler icin faiz disi fazla artisinin kamu borcunu azaltmadigi gorulmustur. Diger yandan borc krizi yasayan ulkelerin faiz disi fazla vererek kamu borcunu azaltabildikleri ve dolayisiyla mali surdurulebilirligi saglayabilecekleri sonucuna ulasilmistir. English Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the financial sustainability of member countries and to present policy recommendations on the financial sustainability of the European Monetary Union. In this context, the primary surplus and public debt data of countries of European Monetary Union have been used as an indicator of fiscal sustainability. The financial sustainability of the countries that are members of the European Monetary Union has been explored by using annual panel data analysis for the period 1999-2015, taking into account the distinction between the countries experiencing the debt crisis and the countries not living the debt crisis. According to the results of the research, it is seen that the increase in the primary surplus for the countries which don’t have the debt crisis, did not decrease the public debts. On the other hand, countries with debt crises are able to reduce public debt by providing primary surplus and thus achieve financial sustainability.