Influence Paths of Fertility Intention of Unmarried Women of Childbearing Age Based on Bayesian Network Model

Abstract

According to the data from the seventh census, the proportion of the elderly population and the total dependency coefficient in China have increased significantly compared with that of the sixth census. The fertility situation is grim. The desire to procreate is the premise of procreation. The research on the influence of unmarried women of childbearing age on fertility intention is helpful to predict the change of fertility behavior and fertility trend. The paper applies the Bayesian network model to explore the influencing process of unmarried women's fertility intention and form the influence paths. Objective and social factors are considered as input variables, and fertility intention is taken as output variables in the network. Based on the data obtained from the National Social Science Fund project survey, the causal relationship and influence path between input variables and fertility intention are established. Social factors are considered to be the fertility tradition of unmarried women's environment and the attitude of people around them towards fertility intention. Therefore, this may be beyond the framework of cost-utility analysis. It is concluded that social factors will have an impact on unmarried fertility intention, and there is a complex relationship among them. The marriage intention affects the fertility intention, and it is affected by the personal income, which has a direct impact on the fertility intention. Besides, it is found that unmarried women's age, household registration type, educational background, and current residence had little influence on their fertility intention. It is noteworthy that this is the first attempt to choose the Bayesian network model to study fertility intention. The path between realistic factors and subjective perception of fertility desire needs further research.