An optimal, less vulnerable renewable portfolio

Abstract

This paper proposes a model and methodology to mitigate some important risks associated to renewable energy: the climatological uncertainties and system failures. The basic idea is to combine the complementarities of the availabilities of the different sources in order to ensure a more stable, reliable output. Additional risk management constraints, generation/transmission reliability, are also included. A realistic application to the Brazilian long-term expansion planning highlights its advantages and suggests future extensions.