Agent-based vs. population-based simulation of displacement of crime: A comparative study

Abstract

Central research questions addressed within Criminology are how the geographical displacement of crime can be understood, explained, and predicted. The process of crime displacement is usually explained by referring to the interaction of three types of agents: criminals, passers-by, and guardians. Most existing simulation models of this process take a ‘local’ perspective, i.e., they are agent-based. However, when the number of agents considered becomes large, more ‘global’ approaches, such as population-based simulation have computational advantages over agent-based simulation. This article presents both an agent-based and a population-based simulation model of crime displacement, and reports a comparative evaluation of the two models. In addition, an approach is put forward to analyse the behaviour of both models by means of formal techniques. The results suggest that under certain conditions, population-based models approximate agent-based models, at least in the domain under investigation.