Value Based Collection in Intelligence Analysis

Abstract

Intelligence analysis is not a passive process, but proactive and reactive. Analysts have the opportunity to request collection of further intelligence to improve the analysis. The identification and selection of collection opportunities is a human led process requiring an understanding of the value of a collection to be balanced against the cost and risks of making the collection. Argumentation frameworks are a mathematical formalization to describe arguments and conflicts between such arguments. Argumentation frameworks can be used to represent intelligence analyses, with observations, hypotheses and assumptions represented as arguments and conflicts between these represented by attacks. A value of information can be defined over an argumentation framework based on the change in the result of evaluation of the framework, according to argumentation semantics, when arguments are added or removed. When accompanied by a representation of collection opportunities, the value of information can be used to assess which collection opportunity is most beneficial. In this paper we define a framework for calculating the net benefit over a closed set of potential collection opportunities. This framework is demonstrated against an example intelligence analysis on maritime situational awareness scenario.