Forecasting CO2 Emission from Thermal Power Production in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei by Using GM (1,1) Model

Abstract

China aims to reach the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. However, China's economy over relies on thermal power industry, which make this goal difficult to achieve. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of China's most important economic bases and is the main carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter in China. Therefore, CO2 emission of thermal power production in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is predicted in this paper. GM (1,1) model is adopted to forecast CO2 emission due to the obvious advantage of dealing with small sample. The mean relative error and the posterior error test indicate that GM (1,1) prediction performance is satisfactory. The prediction results indicate that CO2 emission of thermal power production in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will continuedly and steadily increase in next five years. This prediction results can provide local government with policy guidance on low-carbon development.