FORECASTING OF THE MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE FLOOD WATER

Abstract

The article substantiates that the process of implementing flood monitoring and forecasting will optimize the process of preparing for the onset of high water, determining the composition, deadlines and other features of preventive measures for timely and prompt notification of the population about the risk of flooding of the territory. The scientific study presents the results of forecasting the volume of spring flood runoff using regression analysis. The predicted values calculated using correlation and regression analysis of multidimensional data (multiple regression equation) showed fairly close values with the actually observed values, with a satisfactory correlation over a long-term period (R=0,76 for Yesil – Turgen; R=0,72 for Yesil – Nur-Sultan). The conclusion is made that the most simple methods of analysis and prediction of runoff are used in terms of the quality of the forecast information provided are not inferior to the forecasts obtained using complex physically based models.