Bayesian decision-theoretic planning for complex systems-of-systems

Abstract

The relentless pursuit of ever greater efficiency is resulting in an increasingly interconnected world in which complex systems-of-systems, of both commercial and military natures, are becoming common-place. The achievement of high quality solutions to systems-of-systems problems requires decision support aids that can take account of the interests of multiple stakeholders, while also handling complex solution constraints. The paper proposes a general mathematical formulation of the problem using Bayesian methods, and suggests a possible solution technique.