Wealth and jobs in the fifth new world

Abstract

Automation in the 1950's sparked predictions of massive unemployment, and similar gloomy forecasts have been voiced many times since then. Although "Detroit automation" (transfer lines) did increase productivity and contribute to a decline in manufacturing employment, expansion of job opportunities in the service and information sectors more than compensated for that loss. Moreover, the rapid diffusion of computer applications has been accompanied by the creation of new kinds of jobs. With the advent of microelectronics and, more recently, intelligent systems in the marketplace, the specter of unemployment looms large once again. However, many observers are reluctant to predict widespread unemployment for fear of emulating the little boy who cried wolf.