LONG-TIME MODELING EXPERIMENT ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE LAST MILLENNIUM

Abstract

Long-time modeling experiment is a new research field in the global climate simulation. It can not only link present instrumental climatic data up with past proxy record series, but also explain dynamical mechanism of past centennial and decadal climate change, and discuss its main control factors and the difference of regional response. Only few countries can carry on this kind of long-time modeling experiment research at present, for it needs advanced computer technology and climate model. In this paper, the global atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model ECHO-G from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is introduced, and the result of long-time modeling experiment for the last 1000 years is analyzed. First, the climatic simulation ability of this model has been proved by Jones 120-year global integrated instrumental data. Second, according to the surface 2m air temperature of the millennium simulation, the three stages of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the warming of 20~(th) century in 1000-year climate change are shown, and the distribution characteristics of global and Chinese temperature at the maximum of MWP and the minimum of LIA are analyzed. Finally, based on fitting analysis and comparison on controlling factors, it can be seen that the change of temperature is controlled mainly by the change of effective solar radiation during the last 1000 years, while the increase of the contents of greenhouse gases plays a big role on the fast warming over the past 100 years.