{"title":"The ERCOT ORDC Under-Estimates the LOLP Because of a Misapplication of Normal Distribution Probability Theory","authors":"Richard Wakeland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3180714","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ERCOT’s LOLP is underestimated because it ignores the path reserve level might take over the course of an hour. Some paths reach a reserve level of zero but end up greater than zero. These paths are not included in the LOLP determination even though they would result in a loss of load event during the hour, resulting in an underestimation of LOLP by the methodology.","PeriodicalId":105811,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Agriculture","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometric Modeling: Agriculture","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3180714","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Abstract
ERCOT’s LOLP is underestimated because it ignores the path reserve level might take over the course of an hour. Some paths reach a reserve level of zero but end up greater than zero. These paths are not included in the LOLP determination even though they would result in a loss of load event during the hour, resulting in an underestimation of LOLP by the methodology.
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