Extreme value analysis of Fiji's wind records

Abstract

A number of extreme value analysis techniques are utilised to predict basic design gust wind speeds for Fiji, which lies in a tropical cyclone prone region. The study shows that a number of modern methods tend to highly under-predict extreme wind speeds in regions of Fiji severely affected by tropical cyclones, although their skills improve in less severely affected regions. The reference for comparison was Dorman’s method, which has been previously used as a guidance for development of Region D wind speeds in the Australian wind loading code – the AS1170.2-1989. In the case of Fiji, this study recommends the AS1170.2-1989 Region C provisions for Suva and the eastern coasts of the main island of Viti Levu only, and the AS1170.2-1989 Region D provisions elsewhere. This is significantly different to the provisions of the current National Building Code of Fiji (1990) which allow for the use of AS1170.2-1989 Region C provisions for all of Fiji. This difference is attributed to differences in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones visiting Fiji as compared with those for Australian Region C.