Making sense of uncertainty: An application to the Scandinavian banking sector

Abstract

We study the impact of different sources of global, regional and local uncertainty on the seven largest Scandinavian banks over the period 2005–2018. Using a spillover approach and network analysis, we find that Swedish banks are the main source of contagion in the region and spillovers tend to increase in times of heightened uncertainty. Global economic policy uncertainty, global financial uncertainty and local housing market uncertainty affect the Scandinavian banking sector the most. By contrast, geopolitical risk spillovers are limited.