{"title":"Incumbency Disadvantage in U.S. National Politics: The Role of Policy Inertia and Prospective Voting","authors":"Satyajit Chatterjee, Burcu Eyigungor","doi":"10.21799/frbp.wp.2017.43","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage\\\\\": If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats in Congress. We develop a model of partisan politics with policy inertia and prospective voting to explain this finding. Positive and normative implications of the model are explored.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2017.43","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage\\": If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats in Congress. We develop a model of partisan politics with policy inertia and prospective voting to explain this finding. Positive and normative implications of the model are explored.
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