{"title":"The Tortoise versus the Hare: The Role of Term Structure versus Spot Price Trends in Determining Commodity Futures Returns","authors":"H. Till","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2611506","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the role of term structure versus spot price trends in determining commodity futures returns. The paper reviews backwardation and discusses how over very long timeframes, the term structure of a commodity futures curve has been the dominant driver of returns for individual futures contracts.","PeriodicalId":233145,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2006-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Commodity Issues (Editor's Choice) eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611506","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper examines the role of term structure versus spot price trends in determining commodity futures returns. The paper reviews backwardation and discusses how over very long timeframes, the term structure of a commodity futures curve has been the dominant driver of returns for individual futures contracts.
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