A Probabilistic Prediction of Weapon Systems Evaluation Test Execution Ratio and Management Scheme

Abstract

A test service for the weapon systems evaluation is one of the most important processes during the weapon systems acquisition or development life cycle. Before completion of weapon systems development, the appropriate evaluation test can reduce risk and expense which might be expected during weapon systems development procedure. In this paper, it is suggested that a probabilistic prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulation for how much the annual weapon systems evaluation test excution ratio can be reached compared to the yearly initial planned test quantity. And then a weapon systems evaluation test quantitative management scheme is suggested to assist decision making for the test schedule manager who can arrange monthly test schedule based on the prediction result of annual test excution ratio. And the proposed method is applied for the weapon systems evaluation firing test data of the 8th directorate, Agency for Defense Development(ADD). And also the application result is examined.