Impact of Wireless (Wi-Fi, WiMAX) on 3G and Next Generation — An Initial Assessment

Abstract

The mobile infrastructure market is the second largest wireless communications market and arguably the most challenging. Rapid technology change (2.0/2.5G and 3G) and slow revenue growth turning to declining revenues, have created a difficult environment for companies competing in this market. In contrast, Wi-Fi wireless LAN (802.11x) is a fast emerging, widely deployed technology. Recently, WiMAX, a standards-based (802.16x) technology, has emerged as an alternative to cable and DSL in delivering last-mile wireless broadband access. WiMAX forum-certified systems provide fixed, nomadic, portable, and, eventually, mobile wireless broadband connectivity without direct line-of-sight with a base station. Are 3G, Wi-Fi and WiMAX competing technologies? Can they co-exist? Which technology is more cost-effective? Will a convergence take place in the future? This paper takes a closer look at each of these technologies and compares market potentials, deployment costs, potential applications and areas of competitive threat, co-existence, and potential convergence. A summary timeline is presented to compare these three technologies and their impact on key deployments. The paper concludes with examples of efforts taken by operators to deliver what is perceived to be the best, most cost effective solution to customers