Long term trend analysis on precipitation in Ajmer District of Rajasthan State, India

Abstract

This research focuses on long-term patterns of climatic variability, such as precipitation. Rainfall trends in the Ajmer region were assessed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and the innovative trend analysis (ITA) technique on various time scales. Monthly precipitation data were used for the period of 121 years, i.e., 1901-2021. Trends (1901-2021) were assessed at the 5% significant level using a statistical trend analysis method called the Mann-Kendall test. Mann-Kendall trend analysis result reveals an insignificant increase in the region of Ajmer District. At any time, series across the Ajmer District, there is no clear increase or decrease trend. According to the results of the ITA test, all four seasons and annual trends indicate decreasing. Almost all the significant trends identified using the M-K method were excellently recognised by the ITA method. The finding of the study will be useful to understand the risks and vulnerabilities of seasonal and annual precipitation under climate change scenarios in the region.