Stacked machine learning models for predicting species richness and endemism for Mediterranean endemic plants in the Mareotis subsector in Egypt

Abstract

Abstract An effective method for identifying species and evaluating the effects of changes caused by humans on specific species is the application of species distribution modelling (SDM) in desert environments. The fact that many dry lands and deserts throughout the world are situated in inhospitable regions may be the reason why such applications are still infrequently used on plant species in Egypt's Mediterranean region. Henceforth, the current study aims to map species richness and weighted endemism of Mediterranean endemics in the Mareotis subsector in Egypt and determine the environmental variables influencing distribution of these taxa. We produced a map of species distribution range using Ensemble SDMs. Further, stacked machine learning ensemble models derived from Random Forest (RF) and MaxEnt models were applied on 382 Mediterranean endemics distribution data to estimate and map diversity and endemism using two indices: species richness (SR) and weighted endemism index (WEI). The best models for ensemble modelling were chosen based on Kappa values and the Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC). The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability (Area Under the Curve (AUC) for all SDMs was > 0.75), indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Mediterranean endemics. The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most species were wind speed, elevation and minimum temperature of coldest month. According to our models, six hotspots were determined for Mediterranean endemics in the present study. The highest species richness was recorded in Sallum, Matrouh wadis and Omayed, followed by Burg El-Arab, Ras El-Hekma and Lake Mariut. Indeed, species richness and endemism hotspots are promising areas for conservation planning. This study can help shape policy and mitigation efforts to protect and preserve Mediterranean endemics in the coastal desert of Egypt. These hotspots should be focused on by policy makers and stakeholders and declared as protectorates in the region. The largest number of species per area would be protected by focusing primarily on the hotspots with high species richness.