Predicting energy consumption through the LEAP model based on LMDI technique along with economic analysis: A case study

Abstract

This research reports the implementation of logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and categorizes the growth of total energy usage in three different industrial sectors for the years of 2010 to 2021. Furthermore, it classifies and evaluates the factors influencing on energy consumption in Punjab province thru a sustainable way. The growth consumption is classified into scale influence, structure influence, and efficiency influence. Likewise, the long-term energy alternatives planning-Punjab model is executed with the energy consumption, scale impact, structure impact, and efficiency impact. Besides, comprehensive adjustment scenarios are also introduced to examine the impact of three different factors on overall energy usage. The results from the qualitative decomposition of LMDI indicate that the high scale can lead to high-energy consumption in Punjab Province. However, it can be reduced by high-efficiency reinforcement. The total energy consumption in 2024, 2036, and 2044 under reference scenario is 304.12, 460.01, and 590.04 million tons compared to structure influence analysis for slow terminology (SIAS) and comprehensive scenario. For that reason, it can predict and provide earlier energy management planning for the province. Conversely, the structure factor does not display obvious effect on the energy use. Equally, the quantitative results of the long-term energy alternative planning (LEAP) model are relatively consistent with those of LMDI model, whose advantageous impact on the structure influence is reasonably extrapolated. This phenomenon indicates that the structure influence and efficiency influence will maintain the disruptive impact on increasing overall energy use for the future perspectives. Consequently, the LEAP model predicts the energy consumption of Punjab Province among the years of 2020 to 2040 under medium-term development framework.