Modelling sustainable uniformity of the Australian national uniform legislation through ordinal regression

Guzyal Hill, Yakub Sebastian, Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov
{"title":"Modelling sustainable uniformity of the Australian national uniform legislation through ordinal regression","authors":"Guzyal Hill, Yakub Sebastian, Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov","doi":"10.1080/20508840.2023.2259183","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTNational uniform legislation exists in federations to implement national reforms where the central government does not have the direct authority to legislate under the Constitution. The State jurisdictions must work together on legislation to address urgent issues of national concern, national uniform legislation. Developing and drafting national uniform legislation are complicated and complex because they require the cooperation of many units with asymmetrical knowledge, competing priorities, limited budgets and timeframes, and at times irreconcilable differences. Empirical data analysis and statistics could provide an aid for decision-making in these circumstances. On examination of a large body of legal information on the 69 most significant Australian national reforms, this article finds factors that inhibit or promote sustainable uniformity of enacted legislation by using ordinal regression for the first time. This work provides significant evidence-based insights into the process of harmonisation in federations. Overall, our findings contradict the general belief that the uniformity is mostly dependent on structures alone (referred, applied, mirror, and hybrid). If sustainable uniformity is the goal,the decision-makers must allow resources for establishing the national regulator, ensure maximum uptake by the majority of the nine Australian jurisdictions, support the development of national uniform legislation through the National Cabinet, and be prepared for the second wave of national reforms through consecutive reforms. These findings have valuable strategic implications for policymakers, law reform agencies, and legislative drafters who intend to rely on evidence for future decision-making in terms of the most important national reforms. This paper provides recommendations for governments intending to ensure the sustainability of uniformity and adaptability of the Australian legislation for any future changes without losing the important consensus that has been achieved. The findings are also important for other federations seeking to implement harmonised legislation.KEYWORDS: Harmonisationlegislationuniform actsfactorsmodellingordinal regressionAustralia Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 A. O. Gary Banks , ‘Evidence-based Policy Making: What is It and How Do We Get It?’ in John Wanna (ed), Critical Reflections on Australian Public Policy: Selected Essays (ANU Press 2009), 109.2 Legislation that is drafted in substantial terms across several local jurisdictions in Australian or other federation by a ministerial council, national regulator, or a national reform body. Guzyal Hill, National Uniform Legislation (Springer Nature 2022) 29.3 Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov, ‘Temporary Legislation, Better Regulation, and Experimentalist Governance: An Empirical Study’ (2018) 12 Regulation & Governance 192; Guzyal Hill, ‘Untapped Opportunities for the Use of AI in Comparing Legislation for National Reforms’, in The Automated State: Implications, Challenges and Opportunities for Public Law (Federation Press 2021); Ugo Pagallo, Pompeu Casanovas and Robert Madelin, ‘The Middle-Out Approach: Assessing Models of Legal Governance in Data Protection, Artificial Intelligence, and the Web of Data’ (2019) 7 The Theory and Practice of Legislation 1.4 Guzyal Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”: Achieving Sustainable Uniformity in Harmonised Legislation in the Australian Federation’ (2020) 48 Federal Law Review 350.5 In this article, we are using the terms of uniform legislation and harmonisation interchangeably.6 Mads Andenas and Camilla Baasch Andersen, Theory and Practice of Harmonisation (Edward Elgar Publishing 2012) xi.7 The structure of national uniform legislation where jurisdictions model or mirror provisions or Acts of other jurisdictions. Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.8 The structure of national uniform legislation where one jurisdiction enacts legislation and other jurisdictions adopt or apply this Act. Ibid.9 Mix of structures including mirror and applied.10 Parliamentary Counsel’s Committee, Protocol on Drafting National Uniform Legislation (4th ed, February 2018).11 These data largely remain unchanged in 2023 due to the fact we are working with the most significant national reforms and large-scale analysis, rather than a detailed study.12 Holmes Oliver Wendell, ‘The Path of the Law’ (1897) 10 Harvard Law Review 457, 469.13 Daniel Martin Katz, ‘Quantitative Legal Prediction-or-How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start Preparing for the Data-Driven Future of the Legal Services Industry’ (2012) 62 Emory Law Journal 909, 936.14 Tobias Schoenherr and Cheri Speier-Pero, ‘Data Science, Predictive Analytics, and Big Data in Supply Chain Management: Current State and Future Potential’ (2015) 36 Journal of Business Logistics 120.15 Ezz El-Din Hemdan and DH Manjaiah, ‘Anomaly Credit Card Fraud Detection Using Deep Learning’, in Deep Learning in Data Analytics (Springer 2022).16 Giles C Oatley, ‘Themes in Data Mining, Big Data, and Crime Analytics’ (2022) 12 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 1432.17 Ugur Kursuncu and others, ‘Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications’ in Emerging Research Challenges and Opportunities in Computational Social Network Analysis and Mining (Springer 2019).18 I Glenn Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns that Arise from Using Complex Predictive Analytics in Health Care’ (2014) 33 Health affairs 1139.19 Petra Molnar, ‘New Technologies in Migration: Human Rights Impacts’ (2019) Forced Migration Review 7; Frank McIntyre and Shima Baradaran, ‘Race, Prediction, and Pretrial Detention’ (2013) 10 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 741.20 Ronit Kathuria and Vinish Kathuria, ‘Predictive Policing—Are Ensemble Methods More Accurate Than Regression Methods?’ in Artificial Intelligence and Technologies (Springer 2022).21 Charles M Cameron and Jee-Kwang Park, ‘How Will They Vote? Predicting the Future Behavior of Supreme Court Nominees, 1937–2006’ (2009) 6 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 485.22 Alexia Brunet Marks and Scott A Moss, ‘Predicts Law Student Success? A Longitudinal Study Correlating Law Student Applicant Data and Law School Outcomes’ (2016) 13 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 205; Amy N Farley and others, ‘A Deeper Look at Bar Success: The Relationship Between Law Student Success, Academic Performance, and Student Characteristics’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 605.23 Deborah Beim and Kelly Rader, ‘Legal Uniformity in American Courts’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 448.24 Rochelle Morton and others, ‘Assessing the Uniformity in Australian Animal Protection Law: A Statutory Comparison’ (2021) 11 Animals 35.25 Egor Trofimov and Oleg Metsker, ‘Computer Techniques and Indicators in the Policy of Optimization of Legislation and Law Enforcement’ (2020) 489 Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research 60.26 Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”’.27 Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.28 Guzyal Hill, ‘How Does the Area of Law Predict the Prospects of Harmonisation?’ (2020) 41 The Adelaide Law Review 267.29 Paul-Christian Bürkner and Matti Vuorre, ‘Ordinal Regression Models in Psychology: A Tutorial’ (2019) 2 Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 77.30 T. J. Smith, D. A. Walker, and C. M. McKenna, C. M., 'A Coefficient of Discrimination for Use with Nominal and Ordinal Regression Models' (2021) 48 Journal of Applied Statistics 3208-3219.31 Michael Donald Kirby, Reform the Law: Essays on the Renewal of the Australian Legal System (Oxford University Press 1983) 31–32.32 Ibid, 32.33 Ibid, 34.34 Andrew Stewart, ‘A Simple Plan for Reform?: The Problem of Complexity in Workplace Regulation’ (2005) 31 Australian Bulletin of Labour 210; Lawrence Zelenak, ‘Complex Tax Legislation in the TurboTax Era’ (2010) 1 Columbia Journal of Tax Law 91; Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns’; Thomas E Webb and Robert Geyer, ‘The Drafters’ Dance: The Complexity of Drafting Legislation and the Limitations of ‘Plain Language’and ‘Good Law’Initiatives’ (2020) 41 Statute Law Review 129.35 Zhiwen Zheng and Babita Bhatt, ‘Political Polarization in Australia: A Case Study of Brushfires in Australia’ in Causes and Symptoms of Socio-Cultural Polarization (Springer 2022); N Badullovich, ‘From Influencing to Engagement: A Framing Model for Climate Communication In Polarised Settings’ (2022) Environmental Politics 1.36 Johann Höchtl, Peter Parycek and Ralph Schöllhammer, ‘Big Data in the Policy Cycle: Policy Decision Making in the Digital Era’ (2016) 26 Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce 147; ibid.37 Ibid 148.38 Dru Stevenson and Nicholas J Wagoner, ‘Bargaining in the Shadow of Big Data’ (2015) 67 Florida Law Review 1337, 1371.","PeriodicalId":75198,"journal":{"name":"The theory and practice of legislation","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The theory and practice of legislation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20508840.2023.2259183","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract

ABSTRACTNational uniform legislation exists in federations to implement national reforms where the central government does not have the direct authority to legislate under the Constitution. The State jurisdictions must work together on legislation to address urgent issues of national concern, national uniform legislation. Developing and drafting national uniform legislation are complicated and complex because they require the cooperation of many units with asymmetrical knowledge, competing priorities, limited budgets and timeframes, and at times irreconcilable differences. Empirical data analysis and statistics could provide an aid for decision-making in these circumstances. On examination of a large body of legal information on the 69 most significant Australian national reforms, this article finds factors that inhibit or promote sustainable uniformity of enacted legislation by using ordinal regression for the first time. This work provides significant evidence-based insights into the process of harmonisation in federations. Overall, our findings contradict the general belief that the uniformity is mostly dependent on structures alone (referred, applied, mirror, and hybrid). If sustainable uniformity is the goal,the decision-makers must allow resources for establishing the national regulator, ensure maximum uptake by the majority of the nine Australian jurisdictions, support the development of national uniform legislation through the National Cabinet, and be prepared for the second wave of national reforms through consecutive reforms. These findings have valuable strategic implications for policymakers, law reform agencies, and legislative drafters who intend to rely on evidence for future decision-making in terms of the most important national reforms. This paper provides recommendations for governments intending to ensure the sustainability of uniformity and adaptability of the Australian legislation for any future changes without losing the important consensus that has been achieved. The findings are also important for other federations seeking to implement harmonised legislation.KEYWORDS: Harmonisationlegislationuniform actsfactorsmodellingordinal regressionAustralia Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 A. O. Gary Banks , ‘Evidence-based Policy Making: What is It and How Do We Get It?’ in John Wanna (ed), Critical Reflections on Australian Public Policy: Selected Essays (ANU Press 2009), 109.2 Legislation that is drafted in substantial terms across several local jurisdictions in Australian or other federation by a ministerial council, national regulator, or a national reform body. Guzyal Hill, National Uniform Legislation (Springer Nature 2022) 29.3 Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov, ‘Temporary Legislation, Better Regulation, and Experimentalist Governance: An Empirical Study’ (2018) 12 Regulation & Governance 192; Guzyal Hill, ‘Untapped Opportunities for the Use of AI in Comparing Legislation for National Reforms’, in The Automated State: Implications, Challenges and Opportunities for Public Law (Federation Press 2021); Ugo Pagallo, Pompeu Casanovas and Robert Madelin, ‘The Middle-Out Approach: Assessing Models of Legal Governance in Data Protection, Artificial Intelligence, and the Web of Data’ (2019) 7 The Theory and Practice of Legislation 1.4 Guzyal Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”: Achieving Sustainable Uniformity in Harmonised Legislation in the Australian Federation’ (2020) 48 Federal Law Review 350.5 In this article, we are using the terms of uniform legislation and harmonisation interchangeably.6 Mads Andenas and Camilla Baasch Andersen, Theory and Practice of Harmonisation (Edward Elgar Publishing 2012) xi.7 The structure of national uniform legislation where jurisdictions model or mirror provisions or Acts of other jurisdictions. Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.8 The structure of national uniform legislation where one jurisdiction enacts legislation and other jurisdictions adopt or apply this Act. Ibid.9 Mix of structures including mirror and applied.10 Parliamentary Counsel’s Committee, Protocol on Drafting National Uniform Legislation (4th ed, February 2018).11 These data largely remain unchanged in 2023 due to the fact we are working with the most significant national reforms and large-scale analysis, rather than a detailed study.12 Holmes Oliver Wendell, ‘The Path of the Law’ (1897) 10 Harvard Law Review 457, 469.13 Daniel Martin Katz, ‘Quantitative Legal Prediction-or-How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start Preparing for the Data-Driven Future of the Legal Services Industry’ (2012) 62 Emory Law Journal 909, 936.14 Tobias Schoenherr and Cheri Speier-Pero, ‘Data Science, Predictive Analytics, and Big Data in Supply Chain Management: Current State and Future Potential’ (2015) 36 Journal of Business Logistics 120.15 Ezz El-Din Hemdan and DH Manjaiah, ‘Anomaly Credit Card Fraud Detection Using Deep Learning’, in Deep Learning in Data Analytics (Springer 2022).16 Giles C Oatley, ‘Themes in Data Mining, Big Data, and Crime Analytics’ (2022) 12 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 1432.17 Ugur Kursuncu and others, ‘Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications’ in Emerging Research Challenges and Opportunities in Computational Social Network Analysis and Mining (Springer 2019).18 I Glenn Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns that Arise from Using Complex Predictive Analytics in Health Care’ (2014) 33 Health affairs 1139.19 Petra Molnar, ‘New Technologies in Migration: Human Rights Impacts’ (2019) Forced Migration Review 7; Frank McIntyre and Shima Baradaran, ‘Race, Prediction, and Pretrial Detention’ (2013) 10 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 741.20 Ronit Kathuria and Vinish Kathuria, ‘Predictive Policing—Are Ensemble Methods More Accurate Than Regression Methods?’ in Artificial Intelligence and Technologies (Springer 2022).21 Charles M Cameron and Jee-Kwang Park, ‘How Will They Vote? Predicting the Future Behavior of Supreme Court Nominees, 1937–2006’ (2009) 6 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 485.22 Alexia Brunet Marks and Scott A Moss, ‘Predicts Law Student Success? A Longitudinal Study Correlating Law Student Applicant Data and Law School Outcomes’ (2016) 13 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 205; Amy N Farley and others, ‘A Deeper Look at Bar Success: The Relationship Between Law Student Success, Academic Performance, and Student Characteristics’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 605.23 Deborah Beim and Kelly Rader, ‘Legal Uniformity in American Courts’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 448.24 Rochelle Morton and others, ‘Assessing the Uniformity in Australian Animal Protection Law: A Statutory Comparison’ (2021) 11 Animals 35.25 Egor Trofimov and Oleg Metsker, ‘Computer Techniques and Indicators in the Policy of Optimization of Legislation and Law Enforcement’ (2020) 489 Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research 60.26 Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”’.27 Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.28 Guzyal Hill, ‘How Does the Area of Law Predict the Prospects of Harmonisation?’ (2020) 41 The Adelaide Law Review 267.29 Paul-Christian Bürkner and Matti Vuorre, ‘Ordinal Regression Models in Psychology: A Tutorial’ (2019) 2 Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 77.30 T. J. Smith, D. A. Walker, and C. M. McKenna, C. M., 'A Coefficient of Discrimination for Use with Nominal and Ordinal Regression Models' (2021) 48 Journal of Applied Statistics 3208-3219.31 Michael Donald Kirby, Reform the Law: Essays on the Renewal of the Australian Legal System (Oxford University Press 1983) 31–32.32 Ibid, 32.33 Ibid, 34.34 Andrew Stewart, ‘A Simple Plan for Reform?: The Problem of Complexity in Workplace Regulation’ (2005) 31 Australian Bulletin of Labour 210; Lawrence Zelenak, ‘Complex Tax Legislation in the TurboTax Era’ (2010) 1 Columbia Journal of Tax Law 91; Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns’; Thomas E Webb and Robert Geyer, ‘The Drafters’ Dance: The Complexity of Drafting Legislation and the Limitations of ‘Plain Language’and ‘Good Law’Initiatives’ (2020) 41 Statute Law Review 129.35 Zhiwen Zheng and Babita Bhatt, ‘Political Polarization in Australia: A Case Study of Brushfires in Australia’ in Causes and Symptoms of Socio-Cultural Polarization (Springer 2022); N Badullovich, ‘From Influencing to Engagement: A Framing Model for Climate Communication In Polarised Settings’ (2022) Environmental Politics 1.36 Johann Höchtl, Peter Parycek and Ralph Schöllhammer, ‘Big Data in the Policy Cycle: Policy Decision Making in the Digital Era’ (2016) 26 Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce 147; ibid.37 Ibid 148.38 Dru Stevenson and Nicholas J Wagoner, ‘Bargaining in the Shadow of Big Data’ (2015) 67 Florida Law Review 1337, 1371.
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通过有序回归对澳大利亚国家统一立法的可持续统一性进行建模
摘要国家统一立法存在于联邦中,以实施国家改革,而中央政府根据宪法没有直接立法权。各州司法管辖区必须在立法方面共同努力,以解决国家关心的紧迫问题,即国家统一立法。制定和起草国家统一立法是复杂和复杂的,因为它们需要许多单位的合作,这些单位的知识不对称,优先事项相互竞争,预算和时间范围有限,有时存在不可调和的分歧。在这种情况下,实证数据分析和统计可以为决策提供帮助。在对69项最重要的澳大利亚国家改革的大量法律信息进行审查后,本文首次通过使用有序回归发现了抑制或促进已颁布立法的可持续统一性的因素。这项工作为联邦协调过程提供了重要的循证见解。总的来说,我们的研究结果与人们普遍认为的均匀性主要依赖于结构(参考、应用、镜像和混合)的观点相矛盾。如果可持续的统一是目标,决策者必须为建立国家监管机构提供资源,确保澳大利亚九个司法管辖区中的大多数最大限度地接受,通过国家内阁支持国家统一立法的发展,并通过连续的改革为第二波国家改革做好准备。这些发现对政策制定者、法律改革机构和立法起草者具有宝贵的战略意义,他们打算在最重要的国家改革方面依赖证据进行未来决策。本文为政府提供了建议,旨在确保澳大利亚立法的统一性和适应性的可持续性,以适应任何未来的变化,而不会失去已经取得的重要共识。这些发现对寻求实施统一立法的其他联合会也很重要。关键词:协调立法统一行为影响因素有序回归澳大利亚披露声明作者未报告潜在利益冲突。Notes1。O.加里·班克斯:《基于证据的政策制定:什么是政策制定,我们如何获得政策制定?》在John Wanna(主编),对澳大利亚公共政策的批判性反思:精选文章(澳大利亚国立大学出版社2009年),109.2立法,在澳大利亚或其他联邦的几个地方司法管辖区起草实质性条款,由部长级理事会,国家监管机构,或国家改革机构。Guzyal Hill,《国家统一立法》(施普林格Nature 2022) 29.3 Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov,《临时立法、更好的监管与实验主义治理:实证研究》(2018)12 Regulation & Governance 192;Guzyal Hill,“在比较国家改革立法中使用人工智能的未开发机会”,《自动化状态:公法的影响、挑战和机遇》(联邦出版社2021年);Ugo Pagallo, Pompeu Casanovas和Robert Madelin,“中间方法:评估数据保护,人工智能和数据网络中的法律治理模型”(2019)7立法的理论与实践。在澳大利亚联邦实现协调立法的可持续统一”(2020)48联邦法律评论350.5在本文中,我们交替使用统一立法和协调这两个术语马德斯·安德纳斯和卡米拉·巴什·安徒生,《和谐的理论与实践》(爱德华·埃尔加出版2012)第7页国家统一立法的结构,其中司法管辖区模仿或反映其他司法管辖区的规定或行为。Guzyal Hill,“参考、应用和镜像立法作为国家统一立法的主要结构”(2019)31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.8一个司法管辖区制定立法,其他司法管辖区采用或适用本法的国家统一立法结构。同上9结构的混合,包括镜子和应用11 .国会法律顾问委员会,《起草国家统一立法议定书》(2018年2月第4版)这些数据在2023年基本保持不变,因为我们正在进行最重大的国家改革和大规模分析,而不是详细的研究Holmes Oliver Wendell,“法律之路”(1897)10 Harvard Law Review 457, 469.13 Daniel Martin Katz,“定量法律预测——我如何学会停止担忧并开始为法律服务行业的数据驱动的未来做准备”(2012)62 Emory Law Journal 909, 936.14 Tobias Schoenherr和Cheri Speier-Pero,“供应链管理中的数据科学、预测分析和大数据:现状和未来潜力”(2015)36 Journal of Business Logistics 120。
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