{"title":"Modelling sustainable uniformity of the Australian national uniform legislation through ordinal regression","authors":"Guzyal Hill, Yakub Sebastian, Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov","doi":"10.1080/20508840.2023.2259183","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTNational uniform legislation exists in federations to implement national reforms where the central government does not have the direct authority to legislate under the Constitution. The State jurisdictions must work together on legislation to address urgent issues of national concern, national uniform legislation. Developing and drafting national uniform legislation are complicated and complex because they require the cooperation of many units with asymmetrical knowledge, competing priorities, limited budgets and timeframes, and at times irreconcilable differences. Empirical data analysis and statistics could provide an aid for decision-making in these circumstances. On examination of a large body of legal information on the 69 most significant Australian national reforms, this article finds factors that inhibit or promote sustainable uniformity of enacted legislation by using ordinal regression for the first time. This work provides significant evidence-based insights into the process of harmonisation in federations. Overall, our findings contradict the general belief that the uniformity is mostly dependent on structures alone (referred, applied, mirror, and hybrid). If sustainable uniformity is the goal,the decision-makers must allow resources for establishing the national regulator, ensure maximum uptake by the majority of the nine Australian jurisdictions, support the development of national uniform legislation through the National Cabinet, and be prepared for the second wave of national reforms through consecutive reforms. These findings have valuable strategic implications for policymakers, law reform agencies, and legislative drafters who intend to rely on evidence for future decision-making in terms of the most important national reforms. This paper provides recommendations for governments intending to ensure the sustainability of uniformity and adaptability of the Australian legislation for any future changes without losing the important consensus that has been achieved. The findings are also important for other federations seeking to implement harmonised legislation.KEYWORDS: Harmonisationlegislationuniform actsfactorsmodellingordinal regressionAustralia Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 A. O. Gary Banks , ‘Evidence-based Policy Making: What is It and How Do We Get It?’ in John Wanna (ed), Critical Reflections on Australian Public Policy: Selected Essays (ANU Press 2009), 109.2 Legislation that is drafted in substantial terms across several local jurisdictions in Australian or other federation by a ministerial council, national regulator, or a national reform body. Guzyal Hill, National Uniform Legislation (Springer Nature 2022) 29.3 Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov, ‘Temporary Legislation, Better Regulation, and Experimentalist Governance: An Empirical Study’ (2018) 12 Regulation & Governance 192; Guzyal Hill, ‘Untapped Opportunities for the Use of AI in Comparing Legislation for National Reforms’, in The Automated State: Implications, Challenges and Opportunities for Public Law (Federation Press 2021); Ugo Pagallo, Pompeu Casanovas and Robert Madelin, ‘The Middle-Out Approach: Assessing Models of Legal Governance in Data Protection, Artificial Intelligence, and the Web of Data’ (2019) 7 The Theory and Practice of Legislation 1.4 Guzyal Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”: Achieving Sustainable Uniformity in Harmonised Legislation in the Australian Federation’ (2020) 48 Federal Law Review 350.5 In this article, we are using the terms of uniform legislation and harmonisation interchangeably.6 Mads Andenas and Camilla Baasch Andersen, Theory and Practice of Harmonisation (Edward Elgar Publishing 2012) xi.7 The structure of national uniform legislation where jurisdictions model or mirror provisions or Acts of other jurisdictions. Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.8 The structure of national uniform legislation where one jurisdiction enacts legislation and other jurisdictions adopt or apply this Act. Ibid.9 Mix of structures including mirror and applied.10 Parliamentary Counsel’s Committee, Protocol on Drafting National Uniform Legislation (4th ed, February 2018).11 These data largely remain unchanged in 2023 due to the fact we are working with the most significant national reforms and large-scale analysis, rather than a detailed study.12 Holmes Oliver Wendell, ‘The Path of the Law’ (1897) 10 Harvard Law Review 457, 469.13 Daniel Martin Katz, ‘Quantitative Legal Prediction-or-How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start Preparing for the Data-Driven Future of the Legal Services Industry’ (2012) 62 Emory Law Journal 909, 936.14 Tobias Schoenherr and Cheri Speier-Pero, ‘Data Science, Predictive Analytics, and Big Data in Supply Chain Management: Current State and Future Potential’ (2015) 36 Journal of Business Logistics 120.15 Ezz El-Din Hemdan and DH Manjaiah, ‘Anomaly Credit Card Fraud Detection Using Deep Learning’, in Deep Learning in Data Analytics (Springer 2022).16 Giles C Oatley, ‘Themes in Data Mining, Big Data, and Crime Analytics’ (2022) 12 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 1432.17 Ugur Kursuncu and others, ‘Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications’ in Emerging Research Challenges and Opportunities in Computational Social Network Analysis and Mining (Springer 2019).18 I Glenn Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns that Arise from Using Complex Predictive Analytics in Health Care’ (2014) 33 Health affairs 1139.19 Petra Molnar, ‘New Technologies in Migration: Human Rights Impacts’ (2019) Forced Migration Review 7; Frank McIntyre and Shima Baradaran, ‘Race, Prediction, and Pretrial Detention’ (2013) 10 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 741.20 Ronit Kathuria and Vinish Kathuria, ‘Predictive Policing—Are Ensemble Methods More Accurate Than Regression Methods?’ in Artificial Intelligence and Technologies (Springer 2022).21 Charles M Cameron and Jee-Kwang Park, ‘How Will They Vote? Predicting the Future Behavior of Supreme Court Nominees, 1937–2006’ (2009) 6 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 485.22 Alexia Brunet Marks and Scott A Moss, ‘Predicts Law Student Success? A Longitudinal Study Correlating Law Student Applicant Data and Law School Outcomes’ (2016) 13 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 205; Amy N Farley and others, ‘A Deeper Look at Bar Success: The Relationship Between Law Student Success, Academic Performance, and Student Characteristics’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 605.23 Deborah Beim and Kelly Rader, ‘Legal Uniformity in American Courts’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 448.24 Rochelle Morton and others, ‘Assessing the Uniformity in Australian Animal Protection Law: A Statutory Comparison’ (2021) 11 Animals 35.25 Egor Trofimov and Oleg Metsker, ‘Computer Techniques and Indicators in the Policy of Optimization of Legislation and Law Enforcement’ (2020) 489 Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research 60.26 Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”’.27 Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.28 Guzyal Hill, ‘How Does the Area of Law Predict the Prospects of Harmonisation?’ (2020) 41 The Adelaide Law Review 267.29 Paul-Christian Bürkner and Matti Vuorre, ‘Ordinal Regression Models in Psychology: A Tutorial’ (2019) 2 Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 77.30 T. J. Smith, D. A. Walker, and C. M. McKenna, C. M., 'A Coefficient of Discrimination for Use with Nominal and Ordinal Regression Models' (2021) 48 Journal of Applied Statistics 3208-3219.31 Michael Donald Kirby, Reform the Law: Essays on the Renewal of the Australian Legal System (Oxford University Press 1983) 31–32.32 Ibid, 32.33 Ibid, 34.34 Andrew Stewart, ‘A Simple Plan for Reform?: The Problem of Complexity in Workplace Regulation’ (2005) 31 Australian Bulletin of Labour 210; Lawrence Zelenak, ‘Complex Tax Legislation in the TurboTax Era’ (2010) 1 Columbia Journal of Tax Law 91; Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns’; Thomas E Webb and Robert Geyer, ‘The Drafters’ Dance: The Complexity of Drafting Legislation and the Limitations of ‘Plain Language’and ‘Good Law’Initiatives’ (2020) 41 Statute Law Review 129.35 Zhiwen Zheng and Babita Bhatt, ‘Political Polarization in Australia: A Case Study of Brushfires in Australia’ in Causes and Symptoms of Socio-Cultural Polarization (Springer 2022); N Badullovich, ‘From Influencing to Engagement: A Framing Model for Climate Communication In Polarised Settings’ (2022) Environmental Politics 1.36 Johann Höchtl, Peter Parycek and Ralph Schöllhammer, ‘Big Data in the Policy Cycle: Policy Decision Making in the Digital Era’ (2016) 26 Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce 147; ibid.37 Ibid 148.38 Dru Stevenson and Nicholas J Wagoner, ‘Bargaining in the Shadow of Big Data’ (2015) 67 Florida Law Review 1337, 1371.","PeriodicalId":75198,"journal":{"name":"The theory and practice of legislation","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The theory and practice of legislation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20508840.2023.2259183","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
ABSTRACTNational uniform legislation exists in federations to implement national reforms where the central government does not have the direct authority to legislate under the Constitution. The State jurisdictions must work together on legislation to address urgent issues of national concern, national uniform legislation. Developing and drafting national uniform legislation are complicated and complex because they require the cooperation of many units with asymmetrical knowledge, competing priorities, limited budgets and timeframes, and at times irreconcilable differences. Empirical data analysis and statistics could provide an aid for decision-making in these circumstances. On examination of a large body of legal information on the 69 most significant Australian national reforms, this article finds factors that inhibit or promote sustainable uniformity of enacted legislation by using ordinal regression for the first time. This work provides significant evidence-based insights into the process of harmonisation in federations. Overall, our findings contradict the general belief that the uniformity is mostly dependent on structures alone (referred, applied, mirror, and hybrid). If sustainable uniformity is the goal,the decision-makers must allow resources for establishing the national regulator, ensure maximum uptake by the majority of the nine Australian jurisdictions, support the development of national uniform legislation through the National Cabinet, and be prepared for the second wave of national reforms through consecutive reforms. These findings have valuable strategic implications for policymakers, law reform agencies, and legislative drafters who intend to rely on evidence for future decision-making in terms of the most important national reforms. This paper provides recommendations for governments intending to ensure the sustainability of uniformity and adaptability of the Australian legislation for any future changes without losing the important consensus that has been achieved. The findings are also important for other federations seeking to implement harmonised legislation.KEYWORDS: Harmonisationlegislationuniform actsfactorsmodellingordinal regressionAustralia Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 A. O. Gary Banks , ‘Evidence-based Policy Making: What is It and How Do We Get It?’ in John Wanna (ed), Critical Reflections on Australian Public Policy: Selected Essays (ANU Press 2009), 109.2 Legislation that is drafted in substantial terms across several local jurisdictions in Australian or other federation by a ministerial council, national regulator, or a national reform body. Guzyal Hill, National Uniform Legislation (Springer Nature 2022) 29.3 Ittai Bar-Siman-Tov, ‘Temporary Legislation, Better Regulation, and Experimentalist Governance: An Empirical Study’ (2018) 12 Regulation & Governance 192; Guzyal Hill, ‘Untapped Opportunities for the Use of AI in Comparing Legislation for National Reforms’, in The Automated State: Implications, Challenges and Opportunities for Public Law (Federation Press 2021); Ugo Pagallo, Pompeu Casanovas and Robert Madelin, ‘The Middle-Out Approach: Assessing Models of Legal Governance in Data Protection, Artificial Intelligence, and the Web of Data’ (2019) 7 The Theory and Practice of Legislation 1.4 Guzyal Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”: Achieving Sustainable Uniformity in Harmonised Legislation in the Australian Federation’ (2020) 48 Federal Law Review 350.5 In this article, we are using the terms of uniform legislation and harmonisation interchangeably.6 Mads Andenas and Camilla Baasch Andersen, Theory and Practice of Harmonisation (Edward Elgar Publishing 2012) xi.7 The structure of national uniform legislation where jurisdictions model or mirror provisions or Acts of other jurisdictions. Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.8 The structure of national uniform legislation where one jurisdiction enacts legislation and other jurisdictions adopt or apply this Act. Ibid.9 Mix of structures including mirror and applied.10 Parliamentary Counsel’s Committee, Protocol on Drafting National Uniform Legislation (4th ed, February 2018).11 These data largely remain unchanged in 2023 due to the fact we are working with the most significant national reforms and large-scale analysis, rather than a detailed study.12 Holmes Oliver Wendell, ‘The Path of the Law’ (1897) 10 Harvard Law Review 457, 469.13 Daniel Martin Katz, ‘Quantitative Legal Prediction-or-How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start Preparing for the Data-Driven Future of the Legal Services Industry’ (2012) 62 Emory Law Journal 909, 936.14 Tobias Schoenherr and Cheri Speier-Pero, ‘Data Science, Predictive Analytics, and Big Data in Supply Chain Management: Current State and Future Potential’ (2015) 36 Journal of Business Logistics 120.15 Ezz El-Din Hemdan and DH Manjaiah, ‘Anomaly Credit Card Fraud Detection Using Deep Learning’, in Deep Learning in Data Analytics (Springer 2022).16 Giles C Oatley, ‘Themes in Data Mining, Big Data, and Crime Analytics’ (2022) 12 Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 1432.17 Ugur Kursuncu and others, ‘Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications’ in Emerging Research Challenges and Opportunities in Computational Social Network Analysis and Mining (Springer 2019).18 I Glenn Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns that Arise from Using Complex Predictive Analytics in Health Care’ (2014) 33 Health affairs 1139.19 Petra Molnar, ‘New Technologies in Migration: Human Rights Impacts’ (2019) Forced Migration Review 7; Frank McIntyre and Shima Baradaran, ‘Race, Prediction, and Pretrial Detention’ (2013) 10 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 741.20 Ronit Kathuria and Vinish Kathuria, ‘Predictive Policing—Are Ensemble Methods More Accurate Than Regression Methods?’ in Artificial Intelligence and Technologies (Springer 2022).21 Charles M Cameron and Jee-Kwang Park, ‘How Will They Vote? Predicting the Future Behavior of Supreme Court Nominees, 1937–2006’ (2009) 6 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 485.22 Alexia Brunet Marks and Scott A Moss, ‘Predicts Law Student Success? A Longitudinal Study Correlating Law Student Applicant Data and Law School Outcomes’ (2016) 13 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 205; Amy N Farley and others, ‘A Deeper Look at Bar Success: The Relationship Between Law Student Success, Academic Performance, and Student Characteristics’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 605.23 Deborah Beim and Kelly Rader, ‘Legal Uniformity in American Courts’ (2019) 16 Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 448.24 Rochelle Morton and others, ‘Assessing the Uniformity in Australian Animal Protection Law: A Statutory Comparison’ (2021) 11 Animals 35.25 Egor Trofimov and Oleg Metsker, ‘Computer Techniques and Indicators in the Policy of Optimization of Legislation and Law Enforcement’ (2020) 489 Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research 60.26 Hill, ‘Categories of the “Art of the Impossible”’.27 Guzyal Hill, ‘Referred, Applied and Mirror Legislation as Primary Structures of National Uniform Legislation’ (2019) 31 Bond L Rev 81, 81.28 Guzyal Hill, ‘How Does the Area of Law Predict the Prospects of Harmonisation?’ (2020) 41 The Adelaide Law Review 267.29 Paul-Christian Bürkner and Matti Vuorre, ‘Ordinal Regression Models in Psychology: A Tutorial’ (2019) 2 Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 77.30 T. J. Smith, D. A. Walker, and C. M. McKenna, C. M., 'A Coefficient of Discrimination for Use with Nominal and Ordinal Regression Models' (2021) 48 Journal of Applied Statistics 3208-3219.31 Michael Donald Kirby, Reform the Law: Essays on the Renewal of the Australian Legal System (Oxford University Press 1983) 31–32.32 Ibid, 32.33 Ibid, 34.34 Andrew Stewart, ‘A Simple Plan for Reform?: The Problem of Complexity in Workplace Regulation’ (2005) 31 Australian Bulletin of Labour 210; Lawrence Zelenak, ‘Complex Tax Legislation in the TurboTax Era’ (2010) 1 Columbia Journal of Tax Law 91; Cohen and others, ‘The Legal and Ethical Concerns’; Thomas E Webb and Robert Geyer, ‘The Drafters’ Dance: The Complexity of Drafting Legislation and the Limitations of ‘Plain Language’and ‘Good Law’Initiatives’ (2020) 41 Statute Law Review 129.35 Zhiwen Zheng and Babita Bhatt, ‘Political Polarization in Australia: A Case Study of Brushfires in Australia’ in Causes and Symptoms of Socio-Cultural Polarization (Springer 2022); N Badullovich, ‘From Influencing to Engagement: A Framing Model for Climate Communication In Polarised Settings’ (2022) Environmental Politics 1.36 Johann Höchtl, Peter Parycek and Ralph Schöllhammer, ‘Big Data in the Policy Cycle: Policy Decision Making in the Digital Era’ (2016) 26 Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce 147; ibid.37 Ibid 148.38 Dru Stevenson and Nicholas J Wagoner, ‘Bargaining in the Shadow of Big Data’ (2015) 67 Florida Law Review 1337, 1371.