Econometric predictive model for assessing the functional state of students during the examination period: a cross-sectional exploratory pilot study

Abstract

Background . Mathematical modeling is widely used in medicine to analyze the body systems in terms of their structure, work and interrelations. The present study investigates factors associated with the adaptation potential of the cardiovascular system, develops multiple regression models for the dependence of the adaptive potential on these factors, and compares the significance of the linear model with non-linear ones. Objectives. To determine changes in the circulatory system in students during the examination period and develop a mathematical model for predicting the adaptive potential of the cardiovascular system. Methods . The cohort observational study enrolled 74 students of Kirov State Medical University, aged 18–23 years, who gave consent to the survey. The participants were divided into two cohorts depending on the dominant type of the autonomic nervous system (group 1 — individuals with the dominance of sympathetic part of the peripheral division of the autonomic nervous system (n = 54) and group 2 — individuals with vagotonic type of regulation (n = 20)). The relationship between the hemodynamic parameters and the initial autonomic tone was considered as the main relevancy criterion of the study. Comparative analysis of hemodynamic parameters depending on the dominant type of autonomic nervous system was carried out in the cohorts. Development of the regression model was based on 74 observations. Data description included median (Me) and interquartile range representing 25th and 75th percentiles. The indicators in independent samples (cohorts) were compared using the non-parametric Mann—Whitney U test. Correlation analysis of relationships between the studied variables involved Spearman’s criterion (r). Differences and correlations were considered significant at p = 0.05. Calculations and analyses were performed using spreadsheets in Statistica Advanced 10 for Windows RU (Statsoft, Russia). Results. The state of the cardiovascular system significantly depends on the dominant type of the autonomic nervous system. Such parameters as stroke volume, cardiac index, cardiac minute output, circulatory efficiency were established to be significantly higher, whereas diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, cardiovascular index — lower in individuals with activation of the sympathetic part of the autonomic division of the peripheral nervous system. The study revealed significant correlations between the parameters of central hemodynamic and anthropometric parameters depending on the dominant type of the autonomic nervous system. Conclusion . Significant differences of hemodynamic parameters depending on the dominant type of autonomic system indicate the relevance of neurohumoral mechanisms of cardiovascular regulation. The values in adaptive potential exceeded 2.0 points, indicating the stress of the cardiovascular adaptation. The correlation regression analysis showed the greatest significance of the multiple linear regression model developed by the authors for predicting the adaptive potential of the cardiovascular system.