Assessing the vulnerability of flash floods to climate change in arid zones: Amman–Zarqa Basin, Jordan

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Journal of Water and Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2023.237
Rihan Al Saodi, Mustafa Al Kuisi, Ahmed Al Salaymeh
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Abstract

Abstract The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of flash floods to future climate change in the Amman–Zarqa Basin, Jordan. Historical daily rainfall and temperature data from 1970 to 2018 were collected, along with projected daily data derived from general circulation models (GCMs) forecast spanning 2019–2060. The methodology involved analyzing historical and model forecast data, conducting trend analysis, mapping changes in land use, estimating runoff volume, selecting indicators, assigning their weights through the analytical hierarchy process, and generating vulnerability maps. Analysis of precipitation trends revealed a 14.61% decrease in total annual rainfall over the past 48 years; however, future projections indicate a 5.26% increase. Downstream sub-catchments in the arid portion are projected to receive higher rainfall, while upstream sub-catchments are expected to experience a substantial decline, resulting in an overall reduction in runoff. Moreover, our findings demonstrate a rising trend in mean temperature, which is expected to persist. Remote sensing data indicate a 14.76% expansion of urban areas, indicative of rapid population growth. Although no highly vulnerable sub-catchments were identified, downstream sub-catchments 8 and 9 exhibited moderate vulnerability to flash floods, which can be attributed to the increase in rainfall and insufficient stormwater infrastructure.
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评估干旱地区山洪对气候变化的脆弱性:约旦安曼-扎尔卡盆地
摘要本研究旨在评估约旦安曼-扎尔卡盆地山洪暴发对未来气候变化的敏感性。收集了1970年至2018年的历史日降雨量和温度数据,以及根据2019年至2060年的一般环流模式(GCMs)预测得出的预测日数据。方法包括分析历史和模型预测数据,进行趋势分析,绘制土地利用变化图,估算径流量,选择指标,通过层次分析法分配其权重,并生成脆弱性图。降水趋势分析显示,近48 a年总降水量减少14.61%;然而,未来的预测显示增长率为5.26%。干旱地区的下游子集水区预计将获得更高的降雨量,而上游子集水区预计将经历大幅下降,导致径流总体减少。此外,我们的研究结果表明,平均温度呈上升趋势,预计这种趋势将持续下去。遥感数据显示,城市面积扩大了14.76%,表明人口增长迅速。虽然没有确定高度脆弱的子集水区,但下游的子集水区8和9对山洪表现出中等脆弱性,这可归因于降雨量增加和雨水基础设施不足。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
10.70%
发文量
168
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.
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