Projections of future beach loss along the Chinese coastline due to sea level rise

IF 1.9 3区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Coastal Engineering Journal Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI:10.1080/21664250.2023.2265683

Shuai Xiao, Keiko Udo, Yi Zhang

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Abstract

ABSTRACTBeach loss caused by sea level rise (SLR) has become one of the most severe worldwide issues. China is also affected because of its dense population and developed economy along the long coastline. For a better understanding of the beach loss situation due to future SLR, this study developed a database of beach length and width along the Chinese coast and then projected the future beach loss along the Chinese coastline by using the Bruun rule against future projection datasets (CMIP5/CMIP6) of SLR. The total beach length along the Chinese coastline is 1731.3 km, while Hainan, Guangdong, and Fujian have the most account of sandy beaches, with 34%, 28%, and 15%, respectively. The worst-case projections along Chinese coasts show future beach loss of 61% and 63.7 km2 for the RCP 8.5 scenario, and 71% and 74.9 km2 for the SSP5_8.5 scenario. The difference in beach loss rate projections is 1% between the global sea level rise (GMSLR) for the RCP 8.5/SSP5_8.5 scenario in 2100. Under the worst-case scenario (SSP5_8.5), 43% of the sandy beach coastline will lose all the beaches. Adaptation measures considering the characteristics of each zone are needed for better coastal management.KEYWORDS: Sea level risesandy beachBruun ruleshoreline retreatbeach loss AcknowledgmentsThis study was supported by the Tohoku University-Tsinghua University Collaborative Research Fund.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Tohoku University-Tsinghua University Collaborative Research Fund.

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海平面上升对未来中国海岸线海滩损失的预测

【摘要】海平面上升导致的海滩损失已成为全球最严重的问题之一。中国也受到了影响，因为中国人口密集，海岸线长，经济发达。为了更好地了解未来SLR导致的海滩损失情况，本研究建立了中国沿海海滩长度和宽度数据库，并利用brun规则对SLR的未来预测数据集(CMIP5/CMIP6)进行了中国沿海未来海滩损失的预测。中国海岸线的海滩总长度为1731.3公里，其中海南、广东和福建的沙滩最多，分别占34%、28%和15%。在RCP 8.5情景下，中国沿海最坏情况下的海滩损失分别为61%和63.7 km2，在SSP5_8.5情景下，海滩损失分别为71%和74.9 km2。在2100年RCP 8.5/SSP5_8.5情景下，海滩损失率预估与全球海平面上升(GMSLR)的差异为1%。在最坏的情况下(SSP5_8.5)， 43%的沙滩海岸线将失去所有的海滩。为了更好地管理沿海，需要考虑到每个区域的特点的适应措施。关键词:海平面上升，沙滩，bruun规则，海岸线退缩，沙滩损失。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。本研究得到了东北大学-清华大学合作研究基金的支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Coastal Engineering Journal 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Coastal Engineering Journal is a peer-reviewed medium for the publication of research achievements and engineering practices in the fields of coastal, harbor and offshore engineering. The CEJ editors welcome original papers and comprehensive reviews on waves and currents, sediment motion and morphodynamics, as well as on structures and facilities. Reports on conceptual developments and predictive methods of environmental processes are also published. Topics also include hard and soft technologies related to coastal zone development, shore protection, and prevention or mitigation of coastal disasters. The journal is intended to cover not only fundamental studies on analytical models, numerical computation and laboratory experiments, but also results of field measurements and case studies of real projects.