A preliminary review of India’s rural economic crisis: stagnant wages, piling debt and waning demand

Abstract

ABSTRACT Aggregate growth numbers for India present a positive outlook as its economic momentum builds back and the economy displays full recovery following the Covid-19 crisis. It consequently reflects the Indian economy’s underlying resilience and ability to resuscitate its overall growth, driven by the rebound in private consumption despite the strong global headwinds and widening external deficits. However, its rural economy indicators point to a contradictory set of circumstances since this segment has been afflicted with persistently stagnant real wage growth in agricultural and non-agricultural occupations. It is further accompanied by the pileup of past debt for this section of the population, accumulated in the slowdown years of the post-demonetization phase, which has resulted in a continual weakening of rural consumption demand. The purpose of this research note is to provide a preliminary review of a deep-rooted crisis in India’s rural economy. This crisis is not merely an outcome of Covid-induced and inflationary factors, but rather dates back to the post-demonetization period. The data uncovers an enduring vicious spiral for the rural population group that not only questions the consumption stimulus to growth, but also imperils the resilience and economic prospects of the Indian economy.